An Analysis of the Economic Basis and Effect of the Implementation the Two-Child Policy
Qiong Han, Ph.D.

Abstract
Nowadays, the two-child has become a hot topic. Whether it is the national macro-policy formulation or the people's daily life decision-making, they are unknowingly faced with difficult choices: only one good, or two good? Especially the family that is at the age of marriage and childbearing has to face the choice. From the perspective of the national macro overall consideration and the micro-family individuals, it seems that the conditions for reference and choice are very different. How to make choices becomes more and more difficult, and the problem of the two-child, has risen to a higher level. Some experts have called for China to enter the Lewis turning point and face serious labor shortages and aging problems. It is necessary to fully open the two-child policy, increase the birth rate, and inject new impetus into economic development. In this regard, this article has different views. It is cautious about the policy of opening a two-child and encouraging the role of the two-child in economic development. It is undeniable that economic development cannot be separated from the labor force. In terms of the current economic situation, China’s economic development needs more high-quality and high-level innovative talents are not simply problems that can be solved by a large population. Subject to our current resources, it is difficult for us to achieve the same number and quality of population. More cases are less and more precise or more and general. Therefore, in population policy, we need to be conservative rather than aggressive. With the influence of the development of the network economy and AI, the labor force with traditional skills will gradually be replaced, facing unemployment and re-employment. In this case, the fertility rate will be increased according to past experience and estimation, and more low-skilled labor and will be added. The lack of creative labor force will have a negative impact on future development. This article focuses on the analysis of the specific theory of advocating the two-child policy, and analyzes the impact of the two-child policy from the theoretical level and practice to illustrate the viewpoint of this article.

Full Text: PDF