The Analysis of Political Divisions in the United States, 1900-2020
Oluwole Owoye, Ph.D; Alvin Josi

Abstract
This paper provides the conceptual analysis of the trends in political divisions in the United States using presidential elections over the 1900-2020 period as plausible indicators of political divisions or political unity. Political divisions and unity are inherent in political issues that compel voters to reveal their preferences in any presidential election. The notion is that presidential elections are political barometers that can measure political divisions or political unity in the United States. To reinforce this notion, we examine the 1900-2020 presidential elections by analyzing the total number of states won or loss by each President-elect. Based on the results of these presidential elections, we derive the political division coefficient (PDC), which ranges between zero and 0.50 and the political unity coefficient (PUC), which ranges between 0 and 1.Both measure the level of political divisions or political unity that existed prior to the election of the President-elect; and both may continue to reflect the level of political divisions or political unity during the tenure of any President while in office. Based on the calculated PDC, we observe less extreme or severe political divisions between 1900 and 1956. During the 1960-1976 period, the PDC showed a W-shaped pattern, which exceeded the upper bound. The PDC reached its lowest level in 1984, and began its upward trajectoriesin1988and it finally reached its upper bound in 2020, which implies extreme political divisions in the Unites States.

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