A Scenario Analysis of the Growth Factors on the Supply Side and Demand Side of Shanghai's Economy in the Next Stage (2021-2025)
Lin Sun

Abstract
This study uses a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct a scenario simulation analysis on the factors of Shanghai's economic growth from 2021 to 2025. The growth factors of analysis include labor, capital factor input, and total factor productivity on the supply side; household consumption, investment, export to ROW (the Rest of World) and transfer to ROC (the Rest of China) on the demand side, and import from ROW and transfer from ROC. Our results indicate that on the supply-side, the most effective driving factor for Shanghai's economic growth is to improve total factor productivity, labor input is still sufficient, and fixed capital investment scale expansion has limited effect. On the demand side, the pulling effect of household consumption and investment is little, export to ROW tends to be neutral, and transfer to ROC is negative. The impact of import from ROW is weak, and the effect of transfer from ROC is greater than that of import. The research results' policy significance shows that Shanghai should increase the introduction and investment of human resources, gradually abandon the growth path relying on investment, and further play a leading role in the national economy on the premise of enhancing Shanghai's industrial competitiveness.

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