A Study on Predicting Coal Market Price in China Based on Time Sequence Models
Guohao Zhao, Kangmo Che, Yushan Zhao

Abstract
Coal is the life-blood of the Chinese economy and is crucial to China’s energy consumption and economic growth. Since January 1, 2002, China has canceled governmental controls on coal prices and adopted the market-oriented price-setting mechanism for electric coal management. Therefore, developing a long-term and accurate coal price forecast is a major challenge for policymakers to plan future energy consumption mix and to make investment decisions in China in the market era. This paper applies time sequence models to study the characteristics of time data with time variation by historical data to predict coal price. The study uses the closing price of Datong gifted mixed coal (>25.12MJ) in Qingdao Harbor from January 7, 2002 to December 27, 2010, which includes China’s reform of the coal price formation mechanism. The results show that the time sequence models can fit relatively well into the alteration process of the national coal price in China.

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